what percentage of this increase will be attributed to hispanic americans between 2030 and 2050?

I. Overview

If current trends proceed, the demographic profile of the The states will change dramatically by the middle of this century, according to new population projections developed by the Pew Research Center.ⁱ

The nation's population volition rise to 438 meg in 2050, from 296 one thousand thousand in 2005, and fully 82% of the growth during this period will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their descendants. (Figure ane)

Of the 117 1000000 people added to the population during this flow due to the outcome of new immigration, 67 million will exist the immigrants themselves, 47 million will be their children and 3 1000000 volition be their grandchildren.

The Centre's projections indicate that nearly one in five Americans (19%) volition exist strange born in 2050, well to a higher place the 2005 level of 12%, and also surpassing the celebrated peaks for immigrants as a share of the U.Southward. population—14.viii% in 1890 and 14.vii% in 1910. (Figure 2)

By 2050, the nation's racial and indigenous mix will look quite dissimilar than it does now. Non-Hispanic whites, who made up 67% of the population in 2005, will be 47% in 2050. Hispanics will rising from xiv% of the population in 2005 to 29% in 2050. Blacks were 13% of the population in 2005 and will be roughly the same proportion in 2050. Asians, who were 5% of the population in 2005, will be ix% in 2050.

Immigration is projected to be the key commuter of national population growth in the coming half century, only it is important to note that possible future changes in immigration policy or other events could substantially alter the projected totals. These projections are based on trends over the by one-half century, during which immigration, both authorized and unauthorized, has played an escalating role in U.S. population growth. From 1960 to 2005, new immigrants and their U.Southward.-born descendants accounted for 51% of population increase. In the after role of that menses, from 1980 to 2005, new immigration deemed for 58% of the 68 one thousand thousand additional people.

For the period from 2005-2050, new immigrants and their descendants will business relationship for 82% of population increase. The contribution of new clearing to population change was derived by comparing our main projection with an culling projection that assumes no new immigrants arrive after 2005. (See Contribution of Clearing to Population Change in Appendix.)

The heightening role of immigration contrasts with a subtract in fertility in recent decades. The average number of births per woman has declined markedly since the late 1950s, from more than three.5 and then to near 2 now. Also, a smaller proportion of women are of childbearing age now, compared with earlier decades. These two changes have made immigration a more prominent factor in population growth.

Methods and Assumptions

The Middle's projections for the period from 2005 to 2050 are based on detailed assumptions about patterns in births, deaths and clearing—the three building blocks of population change. All population projections have congenital in uncertainties, especially for years farther in the futurity, because they are based on assumptions most futurity behavior. In add-on, these uncertainties can multiply considering key aspects of population alter are ofttimes interrelated—for example, a decline in immigration could also pb to a reject in the birthrate because immigrants tend to have larger families than exercise native born residents.
The Centre has developed three different population projections for 2050, but the body of this report presents findings from the main projection (figures from projections based on lower or college clearing levels are gear up forth in a section that starts on page 23). These projections consolidate and build upon past trends, present conditions, and factors affecting future beliefs.

None of the projections should be treated equally predictions. The country's policies may alter, as may the factors that influence nascence, expiry and clearing rates. Even given these caveats, still, population projections are an important analytical tool for planners. A ascent or turn down in the overall population—as well as in detail age groups—will have important impacts on the nation'southward revenue enhancement base and workforce. Demographic change has major implications for authorities spending in key areas such as schools, health programs, customs services, infrastructure and Social Security. Projections besides provide business with a basis upon which to brand judgments about future markets. And they are of increasing interest because of the role that population may play in climatic change and other environmental concerns.

A Note on Methodology

The Heart's projections utilize well established demographic methods and models to carry the population forwards in time. The models and assumptions are disaggregated by race and by Hispanic origin, as are many project models (e.k., Census Bureau, 2000). With regard to immigration, the Center's projections too incorporate methods adult past Edmonston and Passel (1992, 1994) that differentiate the population by generation, i.e., the first generation (strange-born), the second generation (U.S. natives with at least ane immigrant parent) and the tertiary-and-college generations (U.S. native children of ii U.Southward. native-born parents). For more detail, see the "Methodology" Appendix to this study.

When incorporating nascence estimates into the projections, the Center has assumed that the overall fertility rate volition remain near the level information technology has been for the past three decades, with differing rates past race and ethnicity (Appendix, Effigy A2). Birthrates are assumed to exist well in a higher place average for immigrants, slightly above average overall for the second generation (U.Southward. natives with at least one immigrant parent) and below average for subsequent generations born in the U.s.. The Center's fertility rate projections are near identical to those of the Social Security trustees and slightly lower than those of the Census Bureau. (Census Agency, 2004; Social Security Administration, 2007).

Equally for death rates, life expectancy is assumed to improve somewhat for all groups throughout the period covered by these projections. (Appendix, Effigy A3) The Center'southward projections use Census Bureau assumptions virtually life expectancy gains, which are higher than those of the Social Security Trustees.

Immigration to the The states has risen quickly and steadily for decades as a result of increasing globalization and population movements, changes in U.S. immigration laws, the growing linkages of immigrant families within this country to communities abroad and labor market factors. Not only take the numbers of new U.S. immigrants increased over recent periods, only the rate of immigration as well has risen steadily, whether measured from 1930, 1960 or 1980. In the face up of these potent and persistent trends, near U.S. government projections, whether done past the Demography Bureau (1996, 2000, 2004) or the Social Security Assistants (2007) have assumed constant or even decreasing numbers of immigrants, implying sharp and sometimes immediate declines in the rate of immigration. As a result, official projections over the last several decades have consistently underestimated actual population growth.

The Pew Research Center projections accept causeless that the annual clearing level, now nearly i.4 1000000 people, volition increment slowly by 1% per twelvemonth, reaching two.1 meg immigrants in 2050. (Effigy three)

This rate of growth is in line with, just somewhat slower than, the growth trends of the final several decades. These immigration levels are slightly college than those projected by either the Census Bureau or the Social Security Trustees in the short run and substantially higher toward the end of the projection horizon.

With the Eye'south clearing supposition, the rate of clearing remains roughly constant over the 45-year projection horizon at 0.48% per year, or simply under five immigrants per 1,000 population for each yr. The charge per unit is slightly below the rate for the first half of this decade and equal to the average for the last 35 years. (Figure 4)

The decades-long pattern of steady increases has been interrupted recently by yr-to-year variation, including a spike in 1998-2001, a sharp decline in 2002-2004 (Passel and Suro, 2005), followed by a render to the long-term average in the final several years. The relatively steady growth of the last 70 years contrasts with substantial fluctuations that occurred in the 19th and early 20th centuries. (Effigy v)

Brusk-term fluctuations are probable to continue to occur, but the Center'southward projections presume that those variations will be less important than the long-term trends. Although the rate is held steady in the Center'due south projections, the number of new immigrants rises as the nation'southward total population goes up. The projections besides assume that several hundred thousand foreign-born residents will leave each year, which is in keeping with trends of the past several decades. Reflecting recent trends, the Center's projections include a mix of new arrivals of legal permanent residents and unauthorized, or illegal, migrants, although the ii groups are not broken out separately.

The outcome of illegal immigration has get highly contentious in recent years. Last summer, Congress tried simply failed to pass a comprehensive reform bill, and the fence over how to change immigration policies has go a major topic of the current presidential campaign. It is possible that a hereafter Congress will enact laws that would sharply cut immigration flows. This has happened before. The Immigration Act of 1924 (along with an economic low and a world war) drastically reduced immigrants as a share of the U.S. population from a 20th century peak of 14.7% in 1910 to a low of 4.7% in 1970.

This report offers two alternative population projections in addition to its main project. The alternatives are based on clearing levels roughly 50% above and 50% below the baseline projection, but use the same fertility and mortality assumptions as the baseline projection. Under the lower-clearing scenario, the population would ascent to 384 one thousand thousand in 2050, and new immigration would account for 71% of growth during the projections menstruation. Nether the higher-immigration scenario, the population would go up to 496 million, and new immigration would business relationship for 87% of the increase. The baseline projection shows the population volition rise to 438 meg, and new immigration will account for 82% of the increase.

Population Trends

The Center'southward primary projection indicates that the nation'south population will grow 48% over the 2005–2050 period. That growth rate is lower than the 64% increase in the nation'due south population from 1960 through 2005. The projected annual growth charge per unit of 0.ix% equals that of the 1980s but is lower than the stride of growth during other decades since the 1960s.

The Middle's projections also bespeak that between 2005 and 2050 the number of elderly will increase more speedily than either the number of children or working-historic period adults.ⁱⁱ Immigration and births to immigrants in the Usa will be responsible for all growth of other age groups but volition have little bear on on the number of elderly, which is afflicted mainly by the aging of the mail service-Earth War 2 baby-nail generation.

The relationship between the size of the working-age population, on the one hand, and the immature and elderly on the other hand, is sometimes referred to as a nation's "dependency ratio." The Center's projections show that the dependency ratio, which was 59 young and elderly for every 100 people of working historic period in 2005, will rise to 72 dependents per 100 people of working age in 2050. That means the costs per worker to support the immature and elderly would get up. Under a lower-clearing scenario, the ratio would rising even higher, to 75 dependents per 100 people of working age. Under a higher-immigration scenario, it would be 69 dependents per 100 working-age people.

In terms of international comparisons, the United States will go along to be the world'due south 3rd almost populous nation in 2050, behind Republic of india and Mainland china, each with more a billion people (United nations, 2007). The projected annual growth rate for the Us volition keep to exceed that in most other developed nations, which are growing at a slower pace, if at all. European countries by and large are growing at no more than 0.5% a twelvemonth, and some are losing population.

As is truthful in the United states of america, the immigrant populations in many other developed nations have been growing rapidly in contempo decades. The United States has a larger strange-born population than any other state, but U.S. immigrants were a smaller share of the 2005 population (12%) than those in a few countries with long histories of receiving immigrants—including Commonwealth of australia at twenty% or Canada with xix% (Un, 2006). Although immigrants are a larger share of the U.S. population than in near of Europe, some countries have a share of immigrants budgeted that of the United States, including France (11%) and the U.k. (ix%).

This report begins by presenting the baseline project for the total population from 2005 to 2050. The next sections go into detail about the projected estimates for key segments of the population, including the foreign built-in, Hispanics, blacks, Asians, non-Hispanic whites, working-age adults, children and the elderly. This written report so examines how these changes will touch the size of the potential workforce relative to the number of elderly and immature people. A final department presents the results of two alternative projections. This overview concludes with a summary of major projections.

Racial and Indigenous Groups

In the Center's projections, each person is included in only one race or Hispanic category. These projections assume that definitions of race and indigenous categories will remain stock-still and that self-identification does non change over fourth dimension. In reality, the growing numbers of births to parents of dissimilar racial and indigenous groups, every bit well every bit changing social norms well-nigh racial and indigenous self-identification, are serving to blur the boundaries of racial/indigenous categories. Consequently, the future sizes of race/ethnic groups could exist higher or lower than the projection values even if the underlying demographic assumptions nigh the future evidence to exist right.

Fundamental Projections

Population and Immigration

• Between 2005 and 2050, the nation'southward population will increase to 438 million from 296 meg, a rise of 142 million people that represents growth of 48%.
• Immigrants who make it after 2005, and their U.Due south.-born descendants, business relationship for 82% of the projected national population increment during the 2005–2050 catamenia.
• Of the 117 boosted people attributable to the event of new immigration, 67 million will be the immigrants themselves and fifty one thousand thousand will be their U.S.-born children and grandchildren
• The nation'due south foreign-born population, 36 million in 2005, is projected to rise to 81 million in 2050, growth of 129%.
• In 2050, nearly one in 5 Americans (19%) will be an immigrant, compared with one in eight now (12% in 2005).
• The foreign-born share of the nation's population will exceed celebrated highs onetime between 2020 and 2025, when it reaches 15%. The historic superlative share was xiv.7% in 1910 and fourteen.viii% in 1890.
• Births in the Usa will play a growing role in Hispanic and Asian population growth, and then a diminishing proportion of both groups will be foreign-born.

Racial and Indigenous Groups

• The Hispanic population, 42 million in 2005, will ascent to 128 one thousand thousand in 2050, tripling in size. Latinos volition exist 29% of the population, compared with 14% in 2005. (Figure 6) Latinos will business relationship for lx% of the nation'southward population growth from 2005 to 2050.
• The black population, 38 1000000 in 2005, will abound to 59 million in 2050, a rise of 56%. In 2050, the nation's population will be 13.iv% black, compared with 12.8% in 2005.
• The Asian population, 14 million in 2005, volition grow to 41 million in 2050, near tripling in size. In 2050, the nation'due south population will exist ix% Asian, compared with five% in 2005. Most Asians in the United States were foreign born in 2005 (58%), but past 2050, fewer than half (47%) will exist.
• The white, non-Hispanic population, 199 million in 2005, volition grow to 207 one thousand thousand in 2050, a 4% increase. In 2050, 47% of the U.S. population volition be non-Hispanic white, compared with 67% in 2005.

Age Groups

• The working-age population—adults ages xviii to 64—will reach 255 million in 2050, upward from 186 million in 2005. This segment will grow more slowly over the projection catamenia (37%) than the overall population. Time to come immigrants and their descendants will account for all growth in this group.
• Among working-age adults, the foreign-born share, 15% in 2005, will rise to 23% in 2050. The Hispanic share, 14% in 2005, volition increase to 31% in 2050. The non-Hispanic white share, 68% in 2005, will decline to 45% in 2050.
• The nation's population of children ages 17 and younger will ascent to 102 million in 2050, upward from 73 million in 2005. The child population volition grow more slowly in future decades (39%) than will the overall population. Future immigrants and their descendants will account for all growth in this population segment.
• Among children, the share who are immigrants or who have an immigrant parent will rise to 34% in 2050 from 23% in 2005. The share of children who are Hispanic, twenty% in 2005, will ascension to 35% in 2050. Non-Hispanic whites, who make upwardly 59% of today's children, volition be 40% of children in 2050.
• The nation'southward elderly population—people ages 65 and older—volition grow to 81 million in 2050, upwards from 37 million in 2005. This group will abound more rapidly than the overall population, and then its share will increase to 19% in 2050, from 12% in 2005. (Figure seven) Clearing volition account for only a modest part of that growth.
• The dependency ratio—the number of people of working age, compared with the number of young and elderly—will rising sharply, mainly because of growth in the elderly population. At that place were 59 children and elderly people per 100 adults of working age in 2005. That will ascent to 72 dependents per 100 adults of working age in 2050. (Effigy 8)

Culling Projection Scenarios

• Under a lower-immigration scenario, the total population would rising to 384 one thousand thousand, the foreign-built-in share would stabilize at thirteen% and the Hispanic share would go upward to 26% in 2050.
• Under a college-immigration scenario, the full population would rise to 496 1000000, the foreign-built-in share would rise to 23% and the Hispanic share would go up to 32% in 2050.
• Nether a lower- or college-immigration scenario, the dependency ratio would range from 75 dependents per 100 people of working historic period to 69 dependents per 100 people of working age. Both of these ratios are well to a higher place the electric current value of 59 dependents per 100 people of working historic period.

A Note on Terminology

The terms "Hispanic" and "Latino" are used interchangeably in this report.

The terms "whites" "blacks" and "Asians" are used to refer to the non-Hispanic components of each population.

"Children" refers to people ages 17 and younger.

"Working-historic period" refers to people ages 18 64.

"Elderly" refers to people ages 65 and older.

"Foreign-built-in" refers to an individual who is not a U.S. citizen at nascency or, in other words, who is born outside the U.S., Puerto Rico or other U.Due south. territories and whose parents are not U.S. citizens. The terms "foreign-built-in" and "immigrant" are used interchangeably.

The terms "unauthorized immigrants," "undocumented immigrants" and "illegal immigrants" are used interchangeably.

This report uses the following definitions of the first, second and tertiary-and-higher generations:

• First: Foreign-born or immigrant.
• Second: U.S. native (born in the United States or territories), with at least one showtime-generation parent.
• 3rd-and-college: U.Southward. native (built-in in the United States or territories), with both parents native-born.

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Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2008/02/11/us-population-projections-2005-2050/